Risky Business? Climate Change, Power Planning, and Resilience in Tanzania

Many countries face the challenge of strengthening and expanding electricity generation and infrastructure while incorporating climate resilience and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets into long-term power planning. Increasingly, climate change impacts threaten investments in renewable energy, particularly hydropower, and thus compromise the ability of countries to meet their GHG reduction targets.

This paper provides a detailed case study of how the Integrated Resource and Resilience Planning (IRRP) framework was applied in Tanzania to help power sector planners assess the climate risks to the country’s primary renewable energy source—hydropower—given expanding electricity demand and the government’s commitment to reducing GHG emissions. By evaluating the performance of different investment portfolios under a variety of conditions, IRRP provides a process for utilities to take into consideration climate risks and resilience when selecting a portfolio.

In particular, the IRRP framework can assist energy planners to i) meet competing objectives, including cost reduction, GHG emission reduction, and climate resilience; and ii) consider trade-offs in long-range planning that aims to scale up energy resources, including clean energy sources.